Trouble in Texas for Clinton

Texas Primary: Latest News, Polls On Democratic Race
Trouble For Hillary
Texas Rep. Endorses Obama (2/18): Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX) -- whose district is the most Republican district in the nation that is represented by a Democrat -- has endorsed Barack Obama:
"As someone who has spent most of my adult life fighting for veterans and for military troops and their families, I am convinced that Senator Obama will be a champion for better health care, housing and quality of life for those who have sacrificed so much for the American family. He knows that standing up for our troops, our veterans and their families is the right thing to do--for them and for our nation's security."
Texas System Worries Clinton Camp (2/18): "Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest," the Washington Post reports.
Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.
What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates.
"What it means is, she could win the popular vote and still lose the race for delegates," Hinojosa said yesterday. "This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem."
The disparity in delegate distribution is just one of the unusual aspects of Texas'
complex system for apportioning delegates. The scheme has been in use for two decades but is coming under increased scrutiny because the March 4 presidential contest is the first in years that gives the state a potentially decisive voice in choosing the party's nominee.
As ABC's Jake Tapper notes, Texas bloggers are mocking the Clinton campaign for only just realizing these rules, which have been in place for some time. Here's TX blogger Publius:
Good lord, let's see if I have this right. The Clinton campaign decides to cede every post-Super Tuesday state to Obama under the theory that Texas and Ohio will be strong firewalls. After - after - implementing this Rudy-esque strategy, they 'discovered' that the archaic Texas rules will almost certainly result in a split delegate count (at best).
While they were busy 'discovering' the rules, however, the Obama campaign had people on the ground in Texas explaining the system, organizing precincts, and making Powerpoints. I know because I went to one of these meetings a week ago. I should have invited Mark Penn I suppose. (ed. Maybe foresight is an obsolete macrotrend.)
Clinton's Texas Roots: "When the Texas primary campaign begins in earnest after Tuesday's vote in Wisconsin, Obama will find stories such as this [local Texas officials siding with Clinton] all over the Lone Star State. From her incidental connections...described from the 1992 campaign, to deep friendships formed working in Texas during the 1972 presidential campaign of George McGovern, to acquaintances gained from multiple visits over the past decades, Clinton is rooted in Texas as she is in few other states."
Miscellaneous News (2/18): "Ugly Betty" star America Ferrera stumps for Hillary in Texas. Dallas' delegate rich district could decide the Texas race, and here's why.
Obama Could Lose Popular Vote But Win Most Delegates: The Dallas Morning News notes that, because the number of delegates per district are decided by the turnout in the last election, when African American turnout was high, Obama could lose the popular vote in Texas but win the most delegates:
As it happens, the state Senate districts with the most delegates - Austin, Houston and Dallas - are all seen as prime Obama territory.
As a result of that and other quirks in the process, it is possible that even if Mrs. Clinton wins the popular vote on March 4 - and declares victory that evening - Mr. Obama could actually come away with more delegates.
Can Texas Latinos Save Hillary? Newsweek investigates.
Volunteers Turn Out For Hillary: Over 1100 volunteers dropped by the Hillary Clinton headquarters in Austin on Saturday, according to a Clinton campaign Texas director.
Houston Chronicle Endorses Obama: The paper argues that policy-wise, there is little difference between the candidates. However, on the issue of leadership:
He offers a historic opportunity to elevate national political dialogue to a higher ground. Those who insist on vitriol and obstructionism would be marginalized.
Obama Lands Endorsement Of Austin Mayor: Mayor Will Wynn mentioned the candidates' energy policy as a major factor in his endorsement:
"For too long, we've allowed old divisions to hold us back," Wynn said. "Recently I've had conversations about energy policy with presidential candidates from both parties, and I believe Senator Obama is the only person who can move us forward on this critical issue.
"Barack Obama gets it. He offers a commitment to confront our energy challenges in ways that will unite our country, help our economy flourish and protect our planet and national security for the next generation and beyond."
Record Turnout Expected: The Texas Democratic Party is expecting a voter turnout somewhere around 2 million people:
State party chairman Boyd Richie predicted Democratic turnout would exceed the modern record of 1.8 million voters in the 1988 presidential primary. The past two Texas presidential primaries have drawn around 800,000 Democrats each.
"I will be shocked and stunned if it isn't a new record for Texas," said Richie, who also expects unprecedented participation in precinct caucuses after the polls close. "We're seeing excitement like we've never seen before."
Obama's Texas Test: The Washington Post's Dan Balz argues that Texas represents Obama big chance to prove that he can win over Latino voters, a block that will be important in a general election:
The Latino community is a critical piece of any Democratic candidate's general election calculations. Against John McCain, who has championed comprehensive immigration reform to his detriment in the Republican primaries, the Democratic nominee will face an opponent who begins the general election with a credible chance of holding a solid minority of the Hispanic vote.
President Bush made significant inroads in the Latino community in his reelection campaign four years ago, and while there is evidence that the immigration debate has hurt Republicans with Latino voters, McCain may be able to escape the fallout from some of the angriest anti-illegal immigration rhetoric and compete for those voters.
Ground forces: Obama will open ten new state offices in Texas on February 16th.
Polls for 2/15: Hillary Clinton is leading in three of four polls released today, with a margin of victory ranging from 7-16%.
Understanding Texas: Texas combines both a primary and a caucus, where delegates are awarded according to results in each contest. Marc Ambinder explains how it will work on primacaucus day.