Prognostications Etc.

Commentary: Is waterboarding torture? Yes
When you hog-tie a human being, tilt him head down, stuff a rag in his mouth and over his nostrils and pour water onto the rag slowly and steadily to the point where his lungs fill with water and he's suffocating and drowning, that is torture. All of Judge Michael Mukasey's artful dodging and word play does nothing to change the fact

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More reality checking this AM based on the WSJ/NBC News polling. For the Hillary-obsessed (like Tim Russert and Chris Matthews), the news is reaffirmation that Rudy and Hillary, sans media focus on Rudy and his character flaws (here's the latest on continuing support for soon-to-be indicted Bernard Kerik), are in a close race. But the more important story is continued rejection of Republicans.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Americans have turned sharply away from President Bush and toward domestic issues favoring his partisan adversaries. Majorities believe the Iraq war can't be won and want mostU.S. troops withdrawn by the dawn of a new president's term in 2009.
But offsetting that demand for change in the presidential contest are reservations about Sen. Clinton's truthfulness and ideology, even as Americans applaud her experience and leadership qualities. The result: She is in a virtual dead heat with leading Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani when the two are matched up.
The foundation is there for Democratic gains.
In most respects, the contours of the 2008 contest look auspicious for Democrats at all levels. Just 20% of Americans said the next president should take an approach similar to Mr. Bush's, while 71% want a different approach. Moreover, Americans by 52% to 34% call the economy and health care, issues that favor Democrats, more important to their vote than the Republicans' relative strong suits of terrorism and values. That's a reversal from the Journal-NBC poll finding just before the 2004 vote that re-elected Mr. Bush and Republican congressional majorities, when voters rated terrorism and values more important, by a 49%-to-39% margin.
That shift bodes well for Democrats in Congress as well as the party's presidential field. By 46% to 37%, Americans want Democrats to retain control of Congress.
At the same time, the poll shows that Democratic congressional leaders have ample reason for concern. The approval rating of Congress has fallen to 19%, while 51% of Americans say their incumbent member of Congress doesn't deserve re-election.
We know the reasons we are unhappy with Congress, and careful readers also know the reasons we have concerns about whoever the Democrats run (Obama and Edwards also run neck-and-neck).
Messrs. Edwards and Obama both run even against Mr. Giuliani, too, matching Mrs. Clinton's standing even though they aren't as well known as she is. But Mr. Obama would enter a general election with serious vulnerabilities of his own, since just 30% of Americans rate him positively on having enough experience for the presidency and just 29% rate him positively on "being a good commander in chief."
But focusing on horse race this early is very misleading. What it does tell us is that people hate where we are now as a country, are worried about the future, and want change. What it also tells us is that there's nothing inevitable about Hillary, but that she's in a strong position in the primaries. And it tells us that Grampa Fred is fading, and that Republicans in general are unhappy with their choices (more than we are.
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Clinton, Giuliani in dead heat in 2008 race: poll
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still holds a 20-point lead over her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination but she and Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani are in a dead heat, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Wednesday.
Among Democrats, Clinton leads with 47 percent, followed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 25 percent and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 11 percent, NBC reported.
Clinton's 22-point advantage over Obama in the poll is virtually unchanged since this summer.
In the new poll, 76 percent of Democrats surveyed give Clinton high marks for being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency, compared with just 41 percent who say the same about Obama, NBC said.
When asked who was more likable, 72 percent said Obama versus 49 percent for Clinton. A majority, 65 percent, also viewed the Illinois senator as more honest and straightforward versus 53 percent who rated Clinton higher, NBC reported.
While Clinton is out front in the Democratic field, she would be neck-and-neck in a hypothetical general election match-up against former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, NBC said.
According to the poll, Clinton leads Giuliani by just one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, a statistical tie. In September, Clinton was 7 points ahead of Giuliani, 49 percent to 42 percent.
Giuliani leads Republican presidential contenders with 33 percent support, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain at 16 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 15 percent.
The poll of 1,509

At this point it doesn't look like a 2008 shoe in!
Let us hope Hill stops talking like Bush lite!
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Trying to articulate what I don't like about Senator Clinton
by bornadem

I've spent several months trying analyze why Hillary Clinton leaves me cold. Let me explain that I SHOULD relate to her. I'm younger, but I'm a female, a lawyer, a mother, a Democrat, an Illinoisan, and I love Bill Clinton. We have a lot in common, right? That said, I have problems with the campaign and the candidate. These are the main issues:

I can't understand what she believes in, really believes in. Other than being the first woman president; other than playing the ultimate post-menopausal "it's my turn" role, why does she want the job, and what is she going to do if she gets it? ( I feel the same way about Hill on this issue ).

I don't represent corporations in my practice. A lawyer has a duty to zealously represent her client. That's really hard to do if you don't like what your client has done, or does. From everything I've read, Senator Clinton was able to do this, and do it quite well. I have talked to other corporate defense attorneys, people who I like, and they often feel terribly conflicted. They have to teach their children right from wrong, but then they pay their tuition bills by representing polluters or companies that knowingly sell dangerous products. I've never read that Senator Clinton felt any angst about this conflict, and it appears that she is extremely proud of her work on behalf of her former clients. Maybe she's managed to completely compartmentalize it. I don't think I like that.

I hear her supporters gushing about her accomplishments. Maybe I'm jaded because of what I do, but I don't get it. Almost every woman I went to law school with who stayed in practice, has accomplished everything that Hillary has, subtracting the experiences she had resulting from being married to a governor and president. In fact, the women I know are big fish in a much bigger pond than Arkansas, where Hillary practiced law. It bothers me that if she is the first woman president, it is the direct result of marrying well, rather than her own deeds. There's something vaguely Luraleen Wallace-ish about it and it is creepy to me.

The fait-accompli attitude really rubs me the wrong way. We are having more debates and forms than ever, and the Clinton campaign is acting as if it's all a mere dress rehearsal, and they're going through the motions. I'm not committed to anyone's campaign yet, but I know many people, especially young people, are putting their hearts and souls into other candidate's campaigns, and the Clinton strategy sort of demeans all their effort. I think the 'other candidates don't count' attitude is going to disillusion and/or anger a lot of young people whose energy and idealism we need if the Democratic party is going to survive.

I don't know much about Iowa, but I know that New Hampshire is not very much like Texas or the Carolinas. There's a visceral hatred of all things Clinton in the south, and I don't see us picking up any ground with Clinton at the head of the ticket. Maybe I'm missing something, but if I'm having a hard time relating to Senator Clinton, how is she going to attract my semi-republican, stay-at-home-mom, college sorority sisters in Louisville or Cincinnati? Or their hubbies?
This diary is not meant to be anti-Hillary, it's my explanation for why I haven't joined the H-Club, and some honest questions that I hope someone can answer,